India Is Ripe For Revolution
With a bulging youth population, high unemployment and poverty levels, rampant corruption and insurgencies, this debate will discuss whether conditions in India make it ripe for revolution.
INSURGENCIES
According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, there are more than 175 insurgency and terrorist groups in India. The highest number of groups can be found in the states of Assam, Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur and Tripura.
In its 2011 India Assessment, the Portal said the reality of India’s multiple terrorist and insurgent movements is that most of them are weakening. For the ninth year in a row, total fatalities due to terrorist and insurgent conflicts in the country continued their decline, registering a total of 1,902 deaths in 2010, as against 2,232 in 2009, and a peak of 5,839 in 2001 (all data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal database).
Recent unrest:
Violence in the state of Assam has claimed more than 40 lives. Hundreds of thousands of people have fled their homes following clashes between Bodo tribes and Muslims. A curfew has been imposed in troubled areas and soldiers have been deployed to secure the railway tracks linking the state with the rest of the country.
There was also recent unrest at the Murati Suzuki plant in Manesar in July when clashes broke out following months of difficult labour relations, leaving a senior manager dead and dozens of workers injured. The Times of India reported Wipro chairman Azim Premji as saying the violence is representative of the social unrest building up in the country.
UNEMPLOYMENT
According to official government statistics, quoted in numerous press articles following an announcement by the Labour Minister, unemployment figures are:
2009 - 2010 - 6.6 percent
2004 - 2005 - 8.3 percent
An Employment & Unemployment Survey (2009-10) by the Ministry of Labour & Employment Labour Bureau found:
- 9.4 percent of the labour force is unemployed at the overall level
- In the rural sector, the unemployment rate is estimated at 10.1 percent
- In the urban areas, the unemployment rate is 7.3 percent
POVERTY
According to the World Bank’s India Poverty Report 2011: 28 percent of people in rural areas and 26 percent of people in urban areas live below the poverty line, down from 47 percent and 42 percent, respectively, in 1983.
According to World Bank data:
The poverty headcount radio at $1.25 per day PPP (purchasing power parity) (as a percent of population)
2010 32.7 percent
2005 41.6 percent
The poverty headcount radio at $2 per day PPP (purchasing power parity) (as a percent of population)
2010 68.7 percent
2005 75.5 percent
Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population)
2010 29.8 percent
2005 37.2 percent
** the poverty line was reduced from 32 rupees per day (urban) and 26 rupees per day (rural) to 28.7 rupees per day (urban) and 22.4 (rural)
The Planning Commission’s ‘Press Note on Poverty Estimates 2009-10' found that:
- rural poverty was very high at 33.8 percent and urban poverty at 20.9 percent
- poverty has increased in geopolitically and socio-economically unstable areas such as the North East
- marginalised social and religious groups show the highest levels of poverty
Efforts to reduce poverty are not meeting expectations. A World Bank report on poverty reduction efforts in India (2011) found that despite recent progress, India is not getting the “bang for the rupee” that its significant expenditure would seem to warrant, and the needs of important population groups remain only very partially addressed. It said the Public Distribution System consumes large resources with huge inefficiencies and leakage and the needs of the urban poor remain inadequately addressed.
Hunger remains a problem, although there have been some signs of improvement. The Global Hunger Index 2011 found:
- India has a GHI (Global Hunger Index) of 23.7 percent and is ranked 67 (below Sudan, Rwanda and North Korea, amongst others)
- India's GHI score fits into the "alarming" category - there are 5 categories, of which "alarming" is the second worst
- But India's position has improved - it has moved from extremely alarming to alarming (one of 10 countries to do so)
WEALTH GAP
The gap between the wealthy and poor is growing. According to the OECD (Regions at a Glance 2011):
- The top 10 percent of wage earners now make 12 times more than the bottom 10 percent (compared to 6 times 20 years ago)